In recent years, U.S. oil production has continued to grow, in the nine months prior to 2023, with oil exports to overseas markets increasing by one-fifth compared to 2022, to about 4 million barrels a day.This growth has had a significant impact on the global oil market, especially in the context of the OPEC+ countries implementing production cuts.

Increase in US oil exports

The growth in U.S. oil exports has made oil the country’s top export category, accounting for 5.5% of total exports, up to 14.4% if fuel and gas were included. The total revenue in the nine months prior to 2023 reached $90 billion, including $22 billion in fuel and gas revenue. This growth in export scale has significantly changed the global oil supply pattern.

Impact on OPEC+ policy

The increase in U.S. oil exports has to a certain extent offset the austerity policies of OPEC+ countries. Oil prices have dropped by about 20 percent since OPEC+ countries announced production cuts, and Brent crude prices have even dropped below $80 per barrel.

Trends in the Global Oil Market

The latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that global oil output increased by 320 kb/d in October 2023 to 102 mb/d. Growth in the United States and Brazil exceeded expectations, helping to boost global supply to a record level in 2023.

Impact of the Middle East Crisis

Although tensions in the Middle East have not yet directly affected oil supply flows, it remains an important uncertainty factor in market concerns.